The lack of snow in Gulmarg, Kashmir, this winter is not just a random weather oddity; it is an intricate story influenced by climate change, local conditions, and global events such as El Nino. Let’s dive into this intricate subject, approaching it with the perspective of a UPSC aspirant and delving beyond surface-level understanding.
What’s the Reason for the Absence of Snow? A Complex Endeavour:
The Shadow of El Nino:
El Nino’s Warm Embrace: This climatic phenomenon, known for its impact on global weather patterns, is caused by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino has a weakening effect on Western Disturbances, which are responsible for bringing snowfall to Kashmir through moisture-laden winds. This clarifies the noticeable decrease in rainfall in the area.
The Domino Effect: Precipitation in Kashmir takes a significant dip due to weakened Western Disturbances. In December 2023, Gulmarg experienced a significant 79% decrease in rainfall compared to previous years, which resulted in a lack of snowfall and disappointment for the locals.
Climate Change: A Growing Concern:
The Slow Burn: Although El Nino has a short-term impact, climate change has a lasting effect. Human activities are causing global temperatures to rise, which is resulting in changes to weather patterns. As a result, winters in the Himalayas are becoming milder. This results in reduced snowfall, which has a significant impact on water resources and industries that rely on snow, such as tourism.
Look beyond Gulmarg and consider the Himalayas as a massive water tower for India. Decreased snowfall could result in a decrease in water stored in snowy reserves, which may lead to water scarcity in the future. These developments have significant implications for the agricultural sector, hydropower generation, and the well-being of countless individuals.
Local Factors: Contributing to the Problem:
Devastating Impact: Picture once vibrant forests transformed into barren landscapes. Regrettably, this is the situation in certain areas of the Himalayas. Deforestation has a significant impact on the region’s snow storage capacity, leading to a faster melting of snow. In addition to the rising temperatures, the dry spell becomes even more severe.
Land-Use Changes: The Himalayan ecosystem is impacted by urbanisation and infrastructure development, which disrupts its delicate balance. These changes may affect snow patterns and lead to more arid conditions.
Can you explain what El Nino is?
El Nino is a climate pattern characterised by the warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It appears as higher sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
This warming causes a change in atmospheric circulation, leading to less rainfall in Indonesia, India, and northern Australia, while increasing rainfall and the formation of tropical cyclones in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
In Kashmir, the effects of El Nino are clear with longer periods of drought, less severe winters, and reduced snowfall. Experts warn that the region can expect to experience increasingly frequent and prolonged periods of drought in the coming years.
Let’s grasp the concept of El-Nino using a simple example:
Understanding El Nino: The Warm Phenomenon Behind Winter Challenges
Have you ever encountered someone attributing a peculiar winter to El Nino? Well, it’s not merely a mythical figure! El Nino is a genuine climatic phenomenon that can disrupt weather patterns, particularly in winter. Let’s explore this topic and discover the fascinating aspects of this “warm guy” in a straightforward manner:
El Nino: A Pacific that is Warmer and More Friendly
Imagine the Pacific Ocean, normally calm and collected. Suddenly, a mischievous kid named El Nino comes along and throws a tantrum, warming up the surface of the ocean in the central and eastern parts. This is the essence of El Nino: a period of unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
However, what are the effects of a warmer ocean?
This warm water plays a mischievous role, causing a disturbance in the typical rhythm of wind and ocean currents. Typically, trade winds blow consistently from the east to the west, propelling warm water towards Asia.
However, El Nino has the effect of weakening these winds, resulting in the accumulation of warm water near South America. This disrupts the entire weather ecosystem, creating a chain reaction worldwide.
What are the repercussions of this heated outburst?
Wetter Winters in Certain Locations:Imagine the warm water vapour ascending from the ocean as playful bubbles. In certain regions across the globe, particularly in North America and South America, these bubbles become trapped in various wind patterns and result in increased precipitation during the winter months. Imagine El Nino as a cloud machine that has gone completely out of control!
Winters Becoming Drier in Other Locations: While certain areas experience heavy rainfall, others encounter dry conditions. In regions such as Australia and Southeast Asia, the diminished trade winds result in arid weather patterns and heightened vulnerability to wildfires. It seems as though El Nino decided to have some fun with the rain clouds, playing a game of hide-and-seek!
Shifts in Marine Life:Warmer water has a significant impact on the delicate balance of the ocean’s ecosystem. Certain fish species flourish in higher temperatures, while others face difficulties. Imagine El Nino as a skilled chef in the vast ocean, creating a fresh menu that certain organisms may not find appealing!
But is El Nino always the same?
Not at all! El Nino can come and go at its own rhythm, sometimes lasting for months, sometimes for years. Just as every individual expresses their frustration in their own unique way, each El Nino occurrence can vary in terms of intensity and consequences.
So, when you hear someone attributing a strange winter to El Nino, keep this in mind:
Believe it or not, it’s true! El Nino is a genuine ocean phenomenon that can disrupt weather patterns.
Imagine a playful child creating waves in the vast Pacific, leading to changes in global weather patterns.
It can be different each time and have varying effects.
By gaining a deeper understanding of El Nino, we can enhance our preparedness for its unexpected occurrences and develop a greater appreciation for its significant influence on the wide range of weather patterns that exist on our planet. So, the next time someone points fingers at the “warm guy,” you can be the one to shed light on the scientific explanation behind his mischievous behaviour!
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1 / 10
Category:General Studies
Which climatic phenomena is most responsible for the lower snowfall in Gulmarg this winter?
Answer is C
El Nino warms the Pacific Ocean, weakening Western Disturbances that typically bring snowfall to Kashmir.
2 / 10
Category:General Studies
The snowless winter in Kashmir is most likely to have the following economic consequences:
Answer is C
Reduced snowfall has an influence on snow-based tourism and the revenue of individuals who work in the sector.
3 / 10
Category:General Studies
Ocean and atmospheric variables foretell El Nino. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) compares air pressure in Tahiti and Darwin. What would SOI values be during an El Nino?
Answer is D
Explanation: El Nino events lower air pressure in Tahiti and raise it in Darwin, lowering SOI. Thus, option (d) is right.
What is Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)?
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monitors the El Niño-La Niña climatic pattern by comparing surface air pressure anomalies in Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti.
4 / 10
Category:General Studies
Which of the following is NOT a possible geopolitical consequence of water scarcity in the Himalayas?
Answer is C
While tensions are possible, cooperation for water management is also a potential outcome.
5 / 10
Category:General Studies
Which phenomena weakens the trade winds during El Niño?
Answer is C
Explanation: The decreasing of trade winds is a critical aspect in El Nino development. Ocean currents play an important part in this process, hence option (c) is appropriate.
6 / 10
Category:General Studies
Which of the following is NOT a likely consequence of El Nino?
Answer is D
El Nino has a global impact on weather patterns, but it is most noticeable in the Pacific and nearby regions. Option (d) is more closely related to La Nina, the antiphase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle.
7 / 10
Category:General Studies
El Nino events typically last for:
Answer is B
El Niño occurrences can last anywhere from a few months to a year. Option (b) is the most accurate.
8 / 10
Category:General Studies
El Nino weakens trade winds, causing warm water to accumulate near South America. The Humboldt Current, which travels north along the western coast, is also affected. Which of these is most likely to result from this altered current?
Answer is C
Weakening trade winds disturb the Humboldt Current, raising ocean temperatures and changing fish species distribution. Choice (c) is most likely.
9 / 10
Category:General Studies
What long-term reason is driving the decrease in Himalayan snowfall?
Answer is C
Deforestation and urbanization reduce snow storage capacity and alter weather patterns, impacting snowfall.
10 / 10
Category:General Studies
Understanding El Nino helps us in:
Answer is B
Explanation: While El Nino's exact impacts can vary, understanding its general patterns can help us anticipate and prepare for potential changes in weather patterns. Option (b) highlights this benefit.
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Analyze the complex interplay of El Nino, climate change, and local factors in contributing to the current dry spell in Kashmir’s Gulmarg. Discuss the potential long-term implications of this phenomenon for the environment, economy, and regional stability.
Model Answer:
There are several factors that have contributed to the lack of snow in Gulmarg this winter. The disruption caused by El Nino on Western Disturbances has an immediate impact, leading to a decrease in precipitation. Nevertheless, the issue of climate change, with its increasing global temperatures, presents a significant long-term concern. Rising temperatures have a negative effect on snowfall, which in turn affects water storage in the Himalayas and could potentially result in water scarcity down the line. In addition, the problem is worsened by deforestation and changes in land use, which decrease the amount of snow that can be stored and disrupt weather patterns.
The effects of this drought are diverse. The environment is at risk of experiencing a decrease in snowmelt-fed rivers, which could have negative impacts on ecosystems and agriculture. The tourism industry, which heavily depends on winter sports, is experiencing significant economic losses, which in turn is affecting the livelihoods of the local community. In addition, the issue of water scarcity can intensify geopolitical tensions among nations that share the Himalayan rivers.
Thus, tackling this problem necessitates a comprehensive strategy. Global cooperation is essential for effectively mitigating climate change. It is crucial to prioritise sustainable forest management practices and responsible land-use planning at the local level. In addition, encouraging different winter tourism activities and adjusting water management strategies can assist communities in dealing with the evolving climate. Through a comprehensive understanding of the various factors at play and taking a well-rounded approach, we can successfully overcome this challenge and secure a sustainable future for the region.
Question 2:
Critically evaluate the economic viability of relying solely on snow-based tourism in Kashmir, particularly in light of the recent dry spell. Suggest alternative strategies for diversifying the region’s economy while ensuring environmental sustainability.
Model Answer:
Kashmir’s economy has historically been heavily dependent on winter sports and tourism centred around snow. Nevertheless, the current lack of rainfall and the looming concern of climate change raise questions about the long-term viability of this approach. Relying solely on snow-based tourism leaves the region susceptible to weather fluctuations and limits economic diversification.
It is essential to maintain a balance between economic stability and environmental preservation in order to achieve long-term success. Possible options involve the promotion of eco-tourism all year round, with a particular emphasis on cultural heritage and thrilling adventure activities. In addition, supporting local handicrafts and agricultural production can help generate additional sources of income. In addition, investments in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure have the potential to generate employment opportunities and promote environmental conservation.
Incorporating a sustainable approach also entails managing waste responsibly, implementing eco-friendly building practices, and encouraging responsible tourism among visitors. Through the implementation of various economic strategies, adoption of sustainable practices, and fostering community resilience, Kashmir has the potential to successfully navigate the challenges posed by climate change and flourish in the coming years.
Remember: These are just sample answers. It’s important to further research and refine your responses based on your own understanding and perspective.
Relevance to the UPSC Prelims and Mains syllabus under the following topics:
UPSC Prelims:
Current Affairs and Geography: MCQs: Expect factual questions about:
El Nino: Characteristics, impact on global weather patterns (e.g., rainfall changes), connection to trade winds and ocean currents.
Climate Change: Causes (greenhouse gases, human activities), consequences (rising sea levels, extreme weather events), international agreements like the Paris Agreement.
Focus: Thorough understanding of core concepts, memorizing key facts, ability to interpret data and diagrams related to weather patterns and climate change.
UPSC Mains:
General Essay and Paper-I: General Studies: Both El Nino and climate change can be potential essay topics, demanding a broader perspective and analytical approach. You could:
Discuss regional impacts of El Nino (e.g., monsoon variability in India).
Analyze the interplay between El Nino and climate change in affecting weather extremes.
Propose strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts in specific geographical contexts.
Optional Paper:Depending on your chosen optional, these topics might appear directly or indirectly:
Physical Geography: Detailed analysis of El Nino’s influence on ocean currents, monsoon patterns, and climate models.
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