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• • The Indian monsoon, a lifeblood for millions across South Asia, is a complex phenomenon influenced by various atmospheric and oceanic factors. This year, a crucial player – the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as the Indian Nino – might be making a dramatic return for the second consecutive year, raising questions about its potential impact.
• • Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as Indian Nino, a climate pattern that causes irregular oscillations in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, is expected to return for the second year in a row in the latter half of 2024, according to two Australian weather forecasting agencies.
• • Depending on the timing, a positive IOD can improve the performance of India’s southwest monsoon. For example, in 2019, a large IOD event formed late in the monsoon season, compensating for a 30% rainfall deficit in June, according to analysts.
• • The Australian national meteorological agency Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) stated, “Along with atmospheric signs, model outlooks show a positive IOD event may be emerging. If a positive IOD develops, it will occur earlier than usual.

 

A Historical Recurrence: IOD Back-to-Back

 

• • According to recent reports, the IOD is likely to re-emerge in the latter half of 2024. This would mark a historical event, as records indicate no such back-to-back occurrence since 1960. The IOD is a climate pattern characterized by a temperature difference between the eastern and western equatorial Indian Ocean. During a positive IOD, cooler than average sea surface temperatures prevail in the eastern Indian Ocean, contrasting with warmer than usual temperatures in the west.

 

The IOD’s Influence on the Monsoon

 

• • The IOD plays a significant role in influencing the Indian monsoon. A positive IOD event generally weakens the monsoon, leading to reduced rainfall over India and parts of South Asia. This decrease in precipitation can have severe consequences for agriculture, water resources, and food security.
• • However, the IOD’s impact is not always straightforward. The strength and timing of the event, along with other climatic factors like El Niño, can determine the eventual rainfall patterns.

 

Uncertainty and the Need for Preparedness:

 

• The potential recurrence of the IOD in 2024 raises concerns, especially considering the potential for a weakened monsoon. However, there’s uncertainty surrounding the event’s intensity and its precise influence on rainfall patterns.

 

Here’s what we can do:

 

• • Close Monitoring: Meteorological agencies must closely monitor the IOD’s development and provide timely updates.
  • Proactive Measures: Governments and agricultural agencies can prepare contingency plans to mitigate potential drought impacts. This may include promoting drought-resistant crops, water conservation measures, and alternative irrigation techniques.
  • Public Awareness: Educating the public about the IOD and its potential effects is crucial to promote preparedness and responsible water usage.

About The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A Climate Influencer for India:

 

• • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as the Indian Niño, is a climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean. It’s characterized by a cyclical fluctuation in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Indian Ocean. There are two main phases of the IOD: positive and negative.

 

Positive IOD:

 

• • Warmer West, Cooler East: During a positive IOD event, the western equatorial Indian Ocean near Somalia experiences warmer than average SSTs. Conversely, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean near Indonesia experiences cooler than average SSTs.
  • Impact on India: This temperature difference disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns. Stronger westerly winds blow across the Indian Ocean, pushing moist air away from India. This often leads to a weakened monsoon season, resulting in less rainfall over India and parts of South Asia. This can have significant consequences for agriculture, water resources, and food security.

 

Negative IOD:

 

• • Cooler West, Warmer East: In contrast, a negative IOD event is characterized by cooler than average SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and warmer than average SSTs in the eastern Indian Ocean.
  • Impact on India: This temperature difference weakens the westerly winds and allows more moisture to reach India. This can potentially lead to a stronger monsoon season with above-average rainfall. However, the increased rainfall might not be evenly distributed and could lead to floods in some regions.

 

What happen if La Nina emergence as predicted?

 

• • With La Nina predicted to emerge during June-August this year, the development IOD will likely boost the Indian agriculture sector. Also, it is likely to recharge reservoirs and other water sources, where the storage level is precarious.How?

 

La Niña and IOD Interaction:

 

• • La Niña is a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures. Typically, La Niña conditions are associated with enhanced monsoon rainfall over India.

• • A positive IOD, on its own, can weaken the monsoon. However, when a positive IOD coincides with La Niña, the effects can be somewhat mitigated.

 

Potential Benefits of Positive IOD with La Niña:

 

• • La Niña’s influence on strengthening the monsoon rainfall can potentially overcome the weakening effect of a positive IOD to some extent. This could lead to normal or even above-average rainfall for India.
• • Increased rainfall can benefit agriculture by providing much-needed water for crops. This could lead to a boost in agricultural productivity.
• • Replenished Reservoirs: Higher rainfall can help recharge depleted reservoirs and other water sources, improving water availability for various purposes.

 

Important Considerations:

 

• • The interaction between La Niña and IOD can be complex, and the final impact on rainfall can vary depending on the strength and timing of both phenomena.
• • Even with a positive IOD, the distribution of rainfall might not be uniform across India. Some regions might receive normal or above-average rainfall, while others might experience less rain.
• • It’s crucial to monitor the development of both La Niña and IOD to make more precise predictions about monsoon rainfall patterns.
    In conclusion, while a positive IOD on its own weakens the monsoon, its presence alongside La Niña might not significantly reduce rainfall, and could even lead to normal or above-average precipitation in some cases. This can benefit agriculture and water resources, but it’s important to remember the complexities involved and the need for continued monitoring.

 

Additional Factors:

 

• • Other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can further influence the monsoon’s strength and distribution of rainfall.
    The timing of these events also matters. If El Niño peaks during the crucial monsoon months (June-September), the negative impact on rainfall would be more pronounced even with a positive IOD.

• • Overall, the Positive IOD acts as a modulator, potentially mitigating the negative impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon to some extent. However, the final outcome depends on the strength and timing of both phenomena, along with the influence of other climate patterns.

 

How Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can act as a modulator for the impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon?

 

• • For India, the early emergence of IOD could help get higher rainfall during the south-west monsoon, particularly when it is feared that its setting could be affected by the dissipating El Nino.
• • The Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can act as a modulator for the impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon, creating a complex interplay between these climate phenomena. Here’s how it works:

 

El Niño’s Influence on Monsoon:

 

• • El Niño is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    This warming disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns, weakening the trade winds blowing from east to west across the Indian Ocean.
    Weaker trade winds lead to reduced moisture transport towards India, often resulting in a weaker monsoon season and below-average rainfall.

 

Positive IOD’s Role:

• • During a positive IOD event, the western Indian Ocean experiences warmer SSTs, while the eastern Indian Ocean experiences cooler SSTs.
  • This temperature difference creates a zone of low pressure over the eastern Indian Ocean and high pressure over the western Indian Ocean.
    This pressure difference can partially counter the weakening effect of El Niño on the trade winds.
  • Consequently, the positive IOD might lessen the reduction in moisture transport towards India, potentially mitigating some of El Niño’s negative impact on the monsoon.

 

Modulation, Not Reversal:

 

• • It’s important to remember that a positive IOD doesn’t completely reverse El Niño’s effect. It can only lessen the impact to some extent.
  • The strength of both El Niño and the IOD plays a crucial role. A strong El Niño might still lead to a weakened monsoon even with a positive IOD.

 

A Call for Long-Term Solutions

 

• • While the immediate focus lies on preparing for the upcoming monsoon season, the back-to-back IOD events highlight the need for long-term solutions.
• • Climate Change Mitigation: Combating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to address the underlying causes of these variations in the IOD and other climatic patterns.
• • Investing in Research: Further research is needed to understand the complex interactions between the IOD, El Niño, and the Indian monsoon for better prediction and adaptation strategies.

 

Key Points to Remember:

 

• • The IOD is not the only factor influencing the Indian monsoon. El Niño, another climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, can also interact with the IOD and affect the monsoon’s strength.
  • The IOD events are cyclical, typically lasting for a few months to a year. However, the strength and timing of these events can vary.
  • Overall, the IOD plays a crucial role in influencing India’s monsoon patterns. Understanding the IOD’s phases and its potential impacts is essential for effective water resource management, agricultural planning, and disaster preparedness in the region.
  • By combining immediate preparedness with long-term solutions, we can navigate potential challenges posed by the IOD and ensure a sustainable future for South Asia’s monsoon-dependent societies.

 

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Mains Questions:

 

Model Answer:

 

The re-emergence of a Positive IOD for the second consecutive year raises concerns about a potential weakening of the upcoming Indian monsoon season. Here’s a breakdown of the IOD’s impact and India’s preparedness strategies:

Impact of Positive IOD:

• • Weaker Monsoon: A positive IOD is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian Ocean and cooler SSTs in the eastern Indian Ocean. This disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to weaker trade winds and reduced moisture transport towards India. Consequently, a positive IOD often results in a weaker monsoon with below-average rainfall.

Preparing for a Weaker Monsoon:

• • Close Monitoring: India’s meteorological agencies like the IMD need to closely monitor the IOD’s development and provide timely updates on its intensity and potential impact on rainfall patterns.
  • Proactive Measures: Governments and agricultural agencies can prepare contingency plans to mitigate potential drought impacts. This may include promoting drought-resistant crops, water conservation measures (e.g., rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation), and alternative irrigation techniques.
  • Public Awareness: Educating the public about the IOD and its potential effects is crucial to promote water conservation practices and responsible water usage.

 

 

Model Answer:

 

El Niño and the IOD are complex climate patterns that interact to influence the Indian monsoon:

El Niño’s Influence:

• • Warmer Pacific Ocean: El Niño is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Weaker Monsoon: This warming disrupts atmospheric circulation, weakening trade winds blowing from east to west across the Indian Ocean. Weaker trade winds lead to reduced moisture transport towards India, often resulting in a weaker monsoon season with below-average rainfall.

Positive IOD as a Modulator:

• • Temperature Difference: During a positive IOD event, the western Indian Ocean experiences warmer SSTs, while the eastern Indian Ocean experiences cooler SSTs.
  • Pressure Difference: This temperature difference creates a zone of low pressure over the eastern Indian Ocean (where India is located) and high pressure over the western Indian Ocean.
  • Countering El Niño: This pressure difference can partially counter the weakening effect of El Niño on the trade winds. Stronger trade winds can transport more moisture towards India, potentially mitigating some of El Niño’s negative impact on the monsoon rainfall.

Modulation, Not Reversal:

• • It’s important to remember that a positive IOD doesn’t completely reverse El Niño’s effect. It can only lessen the impact to some extent. The strength of both El Niño and the IOD plays a crucial role. A strong El Niño might still lead to a weakened monsoon even with a positive IOD.

 

Remember: These are just sample answers. It’s important to further research and refine your responses based on your own understanding and perspective. Read entire UPSC Current Affairs.